What happens to bitcoin when the Fed holds rates steady?
Since 2014, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed meeting with no rate change in 41 of 65 cases (63%), with a median move of +10.9% and an average of +20.9%. Over all 3-month periods since 2014, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.0%. The next day it was higher in 35 of 65 cases (median +0.3%).
Bitcoin After Fed Meetings With No Change: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 2014, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 64 | 61 |
| Median | +0.3% | +0.1% | +3.6% | +10.9% | +16.0% | +55.0% |
| Average | +0.6% | +0.6% | +7.5% | +20.9% | +41.3% | +87.5% |
| Higher in | 54% (35/65) | 52% (34/65) | 58% (38/65) | 63% (41/65) | 67% (43/64) | 70% (43/61) |
| Best | +17.4% Dec 16, 2020 | +22.9% Oct 28, 2015 | +89.6% Dec 16, 2020 | +178.6% Nov 5, 2020 | +309.0% Nov 5, 2020 | +930.6% May 3, 2017 |
| Worst | −11.4% Jan 28, 2015 | −31.2% Jan 31, 2018 | −34.5% Nov 8, 2018 | −43.7% Nov 8, 2018 | −51.8% Aug 1, 2018 | −68.0% Nov 3, 2021 |
| All days: median | +0.3% | +0.6% | +1.9% | +7.0% | +11.1% | +42.5% |
| All days: higher in | 54% | 54% | 56% | 58% | 61% | 72% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often bitcoin was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Fed meetings with no change | 65 | +0.3% 54% up | +3.6% 58% up | +10.9% 63% up | +55.0% 70% up |
| Holds after a run of hikes | 29 | +0.3% 52% up | +6.2% 69% up | +15.9% 69% up | +63.3% 83% up |
| Holds after a run of cuts | 36 | +0.9% 56% up | +0.6% 50% up | +5.5% 58% up | +11.8% 59% up |
Every Case
Fed meetings with no change since 2014, newest first. Bitcoin price is the close before the event (US dollars).
| Date | Decision | Bitcoin before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $63,871 | +1.3% | −0.6% | +8.4% | +30.8% | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $65,601 | −4.1% | −2.5% | −5.1% | +5.6% | +28.1% | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $76,351 | −0.1% | +4.6% | +1.5% | −21.4% | +1.2% | — |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $73,922 | −5.4% | −4.1% | −3.8% | +4.8% | −10.6% | — |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $89,103 | −5.1% | −11.7% | −25.5% | −23.6% | −28.2% | −6.5% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $117,922 | −1.8% | −2.4% | −3.1% | +0.6% | −20.7% | −39.7% |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $104,601 | +0.1% | +0.9% | +6.4% | +9.2% | +3.0% | −35.0% |
| May 7, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $96,802 | +6.7% | +6.2% | +11.4% | +15.0% | +17.7% | +0.1% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $82,719 | +1.8% | +5.8% | −0.2% | +32.6% | +43.6% | +9.4% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $101,332 | +3.4% | +0.1% | −4.6% | −18.6% | +3.4% | +21.7% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $66,201 | −1.3% | −18.4% | −7.6% | −8.4% | +49.2% | +24.7% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $67,332 | −0.9% | −1.3% | −10.6% | −12.8% | +0.4% | +43.5% |
| May 1, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $60,637 | −2.5% | +4.2% | +14.0% | −0.8% | −4.4% | +56.7% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $61,913 | +5.8% | +13.0% | +14.0% | +11.6% | +5.6% | +55.0% |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $42,953 | +0.3% | −0.7% | +20.7% | +53.6% | +65.5% | +41.0% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $41,450 | +3.8% | +2.8% | +3.4% | +25.0% | +47.8% | +47.6% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $34,668 | +0.8% | +1.1% | +8.0% | +23.6% | +90.7% | +66.6% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $27,211 | −2.4% | −3.4% | −1.2% | +37.6% | +47.3% | +148.3% |
| Jun 14, 2023 | Held at 5.00–5.25% After hikes | $25,919 | −1.3% | +3.6% | +17.7% | +10.7% | +9.3% | +100.0% |
| Jan 26, 2022 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $36,954 | +0.5% | +4.1% | +19.0% | +27.4% | −19.4% | −45.4% |
| Dec 15, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $46,613 | +2.3% | +0.6% | −6.5% | −5.7% | −11.2% | −54.1% |
| Nov 3, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $63,226 | −2.8% | +6.9% | −11.0% | −31.1% | −33.6% | −68.0% |
| Sep 22, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $40,694 | +10.3% | +3.8% | +41.1% | +38.3% | −9.4% | −26.8% |
| Jul 28, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $39,407 | +1.5% | −0.5% | +13.7% | +5.5% | +45.2% | +9.6% |
| Jun 16, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $40,406 | −5.8% | −21.6% | −16.2% | +10.9% | +63.3% | −7.7% |
| Apr 28, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $55,033 | −2.7% | +3.9% | −32.8% | −36.3% | −11.2% | −20.8% |
| Mar 17, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $56,805 | +1.9% | −4.0% | −1.3% | −34.9% | −43.5% | −0.9% |
| Jan 27, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $32,570 | +2.8% | +3.0% | +60.1% | +80.9% | +15.4% | +70.0% |
| Dec 16, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $19,417 | +17.4% | +17.4% | +89.6% | +168.6% | +177.6% | +152.2% |
| Nov 5, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $14,134 | +10.1% | +8.2% | +21.3% | +178.6% | +309.0% | +124.9% |
| Sep 16, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $10,797 | +1.4% | −3.1% | −1.2% | +64.9% | +229.2% | +263.9% |
| Jul 29, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $10,913 | +1.8% | +3.1% | +7.7% | −1.2% | +75.9% | +413.6% |
| Jun 10, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $9,796 | −4.8% | −3.5% | −5.8% | +18.3% | +16.7% | +432.4% |
| Apr 29, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $7,807 | +10.9% | +14.2% | +22.0% | +18.2% | +46.2% | +371.7% |
| Jan 29, 2020 | Held at 1.50–1.75% After cuts | $9,359 | +1.6% | −0.7% | +2.9% | −29.4% | +3.2% | +14.0% |
| Dec 11, 2019 | Held at 1.50–1.75% After cuts | $7,278 | −0.5% | −4.7% | −1.1% | +41.9% | −8.7% | +61.6% |
| Jun 19, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $9,082 | +4.9% | +21.2% | +33.9% | +11.6% | −17.3% | −2.9% |
| May 1, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $5,351 | +2.9% | +7.4% | +43.5% | +123.5% | +98.0% | +51.0% |
| Mar 20, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $4,071 | −1.0% | −2.7% | +30.8% | +88.6% | +141.0% | +85.0% |
| Jan 30, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $3,448 | +0.3% | +0.3% | +16.0% | +44.2% | +126.9% | +149.3% |
| Nov 8, 2018 | Held at 2.00–2.25% After hikes | $6,530 | −2.2% | −2.6% | −34.5% | −43.7% | −39.9% | +63.3% |
| Aug 1, 2018 | Held at 1.75–2.00% After hikes | $7,780 | −2.7% | −10.7% | −18.0% | −16.4% | −51.8% | −31.6% |
| May 2, 2018 | Held at 1.50–1.75% After hikes | $9,119 | +6.9% | +2.8% | −17.1% | −27.7% | −25.5% | −55.7% |
| Jan 31, 2018 | Held at 1.25–1.50% After hikes | $10,106 | −9.3% | −31.2% | +5.8% | −32.2% | −24.3% | −34.8% |
| Nov 1, 2017 | Held at 1.00–1.25% After hikes | $6,468 | +9.4% | +8.6% | +27.6% | +135.0% | +54.1% | −1.1% |
| Sep 20, 2017 | Held at 1.00–1.25% After hikes | $3,925 | −7.5% | 0.0% | +23.0% | +110.3% | +189.4% | +88.7% |
| Jul 26, 2017 | Held at 1.00–1.25% After hikes | $2,576 | +3.7% | +11.6% | +69.9% | +63.0% | +283.8% | +166.0% |
| May 3, 2017 | Held at 0.75–1.00% After hikes | $1,453 | +5.8% | +18.6% | +68.2% | +79.1% | +216.4% | +930.6% |
| Feb 1, 2017 | Held at 0.50–0.75% After hikes | $970.40 | +4.3% | +7.0% | +15.2% | +15.9% | +181.5% | +397.4% |
| Nov 2, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $729.79 | −5.6% | −3.7% | +2.0% | +58.2% | +57.6% | +228.7% |
| Sep 21, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $608.31 | −2.0% | 0.0% | +4.6% | +22.4% | +48.2% | +275.9% |
| Jul 27, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $651.78 | +0.5% | −7.0% | −12.1% | −7.2% | +14.4% | +72.6% |
| Jun 15, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $685.56 | +11.8% | +7.5% | −1.2% | −16.4% | −8.0% | +63.0% |
| Apr 27, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $466.09 | −3.7% | −4.6% | −2.5% | +37.3% | +23.5% | +147.7% |
| Mar 16, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $416.83 | +0.9% | −0.8% | +1.6% | +9.1% | +59.7% | +78.6% |
| Jan 27, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $392.15 | −3.0% | −4.9% | +6.2% | +5.8% | +36.9% | +56.2% |
| Oct 28, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $293.79 | +6.8% | +22.9% | +13.9% | +45.2% | +44.3% | +130.6% |
| Sep 17, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $229.09 | +1.7% | +0.7% | +5.8% | +42.4% | +79.1% | +97.9% |
| Jul 29, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $294.43 | −2.3% | −4.5% | −23.0% | −19.8% | +22.0% | +43.8% |
| Jun 17, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $250.90 | −0.8% | −1.6% | +7.9% | −9.6% | +6.1% | +69.4% |
| Apr 29, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $225.86 | +4.6% | +5.8% | +3.6% | +14.5% | +1.5% | +90.0% |
| Mar 18, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $285.51 | −8.6% | −6.6% | −14.2% | −18.0% | −2.9% | +15.0% |
| Jan 28, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $263.48 | −11.4% | −9.6% | −10.3% | −6.1% | −14.3% | −7.8% |
| Dec 17, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $327.06 | −4.8% | +1.5% | −10.0% | −27.7% | −28.4% | −31.0% |
| Oct 29, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $357.62 | −3.4% | −8.4% | +6.4% | −10.5% | −23.6% | −24.3% |
Why Fed meetings with no change matter for bitcoin
Most Fed meetings end with no change. The reaction then depends on the statement, the projections and the press conference: whether they point to cuts or hikes later.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin when the Fed holds rates steady?
Since 2014, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed meeting with no rate change in 41 of 65 cases (63%), with a median move of +10.9% and an average of +20.9%. Over all 3-month periods since 2014, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.0%. The next day it was higher in 35 of 65 cases (median +0.3%).
Does bitcoin always go up after a Fed meeting with no rate change?
No. Three months later it was lower in 24 of 65 cases; the worst was −43.7% after November 8, 2018 and the best +178.6% after November 5, 2020. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did bitcoin do after the most recent case?
After held at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026, bitcoin moved +1.3% by the next day, +8.4% after a month and +30.8% after three months.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee's next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 pm New York time. See the economic calendar for the other US releases that move bitcoin.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from bitcoin's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 2014, as a baseline.