Bitcoin Power Law
The power-law trend puts bitcoin's "fair value" today at $144,396. At $80,559 the price is 44% below the line. The model's support line (lowest 1% of days) is at $66,866 and its upper line (highest 1%) at $613,621.
Live price, Oct 25, 2026, 19:05 UTC · Averages and models from daily closes to Oct 25, 2026
Bitcoin price and the power-law model
Where the model line will be
| Date | Model value | Support line | Upper line |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2026 | $153,202 | $70,944 | $651,044 |
| End of 2027 | $209,354 | $96,947 | $889,666 |
| End of 2028 | $281,764 | $130,478 | $1,197,376 |
| End of 2029 | $373,466 | $172,943 | $1,587,071 |
| End of 2030 | $488,568 | $226,244 | $2,076,203 |
| End of 2035 | $1,595,238 | $738,717 | $6,779,072 |
The line extended forward with today's fit. The fit changes a little every day, and the price has spent long stretches far from it. A model value is not a price target.
What the power law says
A power law is a relationship of the form price = k × timen. On a chart with both axes on a log scale it is a straight line. Bitcoin's price has followed such a line surprisingly well since the early years: our fit has an exponent of about 5.8, so the trend value roughly multiplies by 25.8 ≈ 55 each time the network's age doubles.
Because the network's age doubles more and more slowly, the trend's yearly growth falls over time: about 37% a year now, by this fit. The fit is over closes since September 2014; fits that include 2010–2014 give a slightly different exponent.
The trend bands colour in the space around the same line.
Other bitcoin indicators
Power law: FAQ
What is bitcoin's power-law fair value today?
About $144,396 on October 25, 2026, from a fit of every daily close since September 2014. Bitcoin at $80,559 is 44% below it.
What does the power-law model predict for 2027?
Extending today's fit, the line reaches about $209,354 at the end of 2027. That is where the trend line would be, not a forecast of the price, which has spent years well above or below the line.
How accurate is the bitcoin power law?
The line explains about 92% of the variation in log price since 2014, but individual days have been up to 618% above it and 56% below it. Good fits to the past do not guarantee the pattern continues.
Who came up with the bitcoin power law?
Power-law fits of bitcoin's price against time were popularised by several analysts from about 2018, including physicist Giovanni Santostasi. The numbers on this page are our own fit, recalculated daily.
Why use days since the genesis block?
The genesis block (3 January 2009) is bitcoin's start date, so "days since genesis" measures the network's age. Using another start date gives a different curve.
These are ways of describing the price history, not forecasts. Past patterns can break, and nothing here is investment advice.