Bitcoin Trend Bands
At $80,559, bitcoin is in the Undervalued band of its long-term trend — below the middle of the range it has traded in since September 2014, and higher than about 12% of past days relative to the trend. Today that band runs from $74,272 to $83,464.
Live price, Oct 25, 2026, 19:05 UTC · Averages and models from daily closes to Oct 25, 2026
Bitcoin price in its long-term trend bands
Today's band prices
| Band | Price range today | Share of history |
|---|---|---|
| Extreme | $415,578 – $1,085,860 | 95–100% |
| Overheated | $263,903 – $415,578 | 85–95% |
| Above trend | $180,935 – $263,903 | 70–85% |
| Upper trend | $127,189 – $180,935 | 50–70% |
| Lower trend | $97,909 – $127,189 | 30–50% |
| Below trend | $83,464 – $97,909 | 15–30% |
| Undervalued now | $74,272 – $83,464 | 5–15% |
| Deep value | $60,158 – $74,272 | 0–5% |
"Share of history": the slice of all days since 2014 that fell in each band, measured against the trend on the day. The bands rise every day as the trend line does.
How the trend bands work
Bitcoin has risen roughly in a straight line on a log-log chart — log of price against log of time since the network started in January 2009. That line is the centre of the bands. The price swings far above and below it in bull and bear markets, so the bands mark out how far it has strayed: the bottom band holds the cheapest 5% of days relative to the trend, the top band the most stretched 5%.
This is the same idea as the popular "rainbow chart", drawn from our own fit and percentiles rather than hand-placed lines. Because the bands are fitted to the past, the price stays inside them by construction; a new extreme would widen them.
Compare the power-law model (the centre line on its own), the 200-week average and the Mayer multiple. The same idea for metals: gold trend bands and silver trend bands since 1971.
Other bitcoin indicators
Trend bands: FAQ
What band is bitcoin in today?
At $80,559, bitcoin is in the "Undervalued" band (band 2 of 8, counting from the cheapest). Relative to its long-term trend it is higher than about 12% of days since September 2014.
Is this the bitcoin rainbow chart?
It is a rainbow-style chart built the same general way — colour bands around a long-term logarithmic trend — but the trend line, band edges and names here are our own, computed from the price data and updated daily.
How are the bands calculated?
We fit log10(price) = a + b × log10(days since 3 January 2009) to every daily close since September 2014 (b = 5.78, R² = 0.92). Each band edge is that line moved up or down by a percentile of the gaps between the price and the line.
Can the trend bands predict the price?
No. They describe where the price has been relative to a smooth trend. Bitcoin can stay in a band for months, skip bands, or break the pattern altogether. Treat them as context, not a signal.
Where does the price usually go in each band?
Historically the lowest bands coincided with bear-market lows (late 2015, December 2018, March 2020, November 2022) and the top bands with bubble peaks (December 2017, 2021). Those are hindsight observations.
These are ways of describing the price history, not forecasts. Past patterns can break, and nothing here is investment advice.