What Happens to Bitcoin After…?
How bitcoin has behaved after events people ask about: every Fed rate cut, hike and hold, the halvings and record highs. Each page measures the move from the close before the event to 1 day, 1 week, 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later, lists every case and compares it with bitcoin's normal behaviour over the same years.
After a halving
+0.6% median after 3 months · higher in 2 of 3
Since 2016, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a halving in 2 of 3 cases (67%), with a median move of +0.6% and an average of −0.1%. Over all 3-month periods since 2016, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.5%.
After Fed rate cuts
−12.6% median after 3 months · higher in 4 of 11
Since 2019, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed rate cut in 4 of 11 cases (36%), with a median move of −12.6% and an average of +2.5%. Over all 3-month periods since 2019, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +3.7%.
After Fed rate hikes
−7.5% median after 3 months · higher in 8 of 20
Since 2015, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed rate hike in 8 of 20 cases (40%), with a median move of −7.5% and an average of −1.0%. Over all 3-month periods since 2015, it rose 59% of the time, with a median of +7.7%.
When the Fed holds rates
+10.9% median after 3 months · higher in 41 of 65
Since 2014, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed meeting with no rate change in 41 of 65 cases (63%), with a median move of +10.9% and an average of +20.9%. Over all 3-month periods since 2014, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.0%.
After a record high
0.0% median after 3 months · higher in 1 of 3
Since 2015, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a new all-time high after a year or more without one in 1 of 3 cases (33%), with a median move of 0.0% and an average of +25.4%. Over all 3-month periods since 2015, it rose 59% of the time, with a median of +7.7%.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.