What happens to bitcoin when the Fed cuts interest rates?
Since 2019, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed rate cut in 4 of 11 cases (36%), with a median move of −12.6% and an average of +2.5%. Over all 3-month periods since 2019, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +3.7%. The next day it was higher in 5 of 11 cases (median −0.2%).
Bitcoin After Fed Rate Cuts: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 2019, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Median | −0.2% | −3.5% | −5.6% | −12.6% | −11.7% | 0.0% |
| Average | −0.5% | +2.1% | −2.0% | +2.5% | +2.1% | +29.7% |
| Higher in | 45% (5/11) | 36% (4/11) | 45% (5/11) | 36% (4/11) | 36% (4/11) | 55% (6/11) |
| Best | +8.2% Jul 31, 2019 | +22.9% Jul 31, 2019 | +30.6% Mar 15, 2020 | +86.0% Mar 15, 2020 | +76.6% Mar 15, 2020 | +253.2% Mar 15, 2020 |
| Worst | −8.1% Dec 18, 2024 | −10.8% Dec 18, 2024 | −24.1% Mar 3, 2020 | −27.7% Dec 10, 2025 | −35.6% Oct 29, 2025 | −44.9% Oct 29, 2025 |
| All days: median | +0.2% | +0.3% | +1.1% | +3.7% | +4.9% | +30.6% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 53% | 53% | 55% | 56% | 70% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often bitcoin was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Fed rate cuts | 11 | −0.2% 45% up | −5.6% 45% up | −12.6% 36% up | 0.0% 55% up |
| Scheduled meetings | 9 | +0.2% 56% up | −5.6% 44% up | −21.6% 22% up | −10.4% 44% up |
| Emergency cuts between meetings (since 1994) | 2 | −2.4% 0% up | +3.3% 50% up | +43.7% 100% up | +162.8% 100% up |
| Cuts of 0.25 pt | 8 | 0.0% 50% up | −8.0% 38% up | −21.7% 13% up | −17.0% 38% up |
| Cuts of 0.50 pt or more | 3 | −1.3% 33% up | +0.5% 67% up | +56.4% 100% up | +78.8% 100% up |
Every Case
Fed rate cuts since 2019, newest first. Bitcoin price is the close before the event (US dollars).
| Date | Decision | Bitcoin before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.50–3.75% | $92,692 | −0.2% | −6.8% | −5.6% | −27.7% | −19.3% | −25.3% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.75–4.00% | $112,956 | −4.1% | −5.7% | −19.0% | −22.5% | −35.6% | −44.9% |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.00–4.25% | $116,843 | +0.3% | −3.5% | +5.6% | −21.7% | −23.5% | −36.4% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.25–4.50% | $106,141 | −8.1% | −10.8% | −10.5% | −9.0% | −11.7% | +4.8% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.50–4.75% | $75,639 | +1.2% | +16.3% | +26.5% | +22.3% | +7.2% | +57.7% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Cut 0.50 pt to 4.75–5.00% | $60,309 | +4.4% | +5.0% | +0.5% | +56.4% | +71.9% | +78.8% |
| Mar 15, 2020 | Cut 1.00 pt to 0–0.25% Unscheduled | $5,200 | −3.6% | +19.2% | +30.6% | +86.0% | +76.6% | +253.2% |
| Mar 3, 2020 | Cut 0.50 pt to 1.00–1.25% Unscheduled | $8,870 | −1.3% | −8.6% | −24.1% | +1.5% | +4.3% | +72.4% |
| Oct 30, 2019 | Cut 0.25 pt to 1.50–1.75% | $9,428 | −2.4% | −0.2% | −14.9% | −23.6% | −7.1% | 0.0% |
| Sep 18, 2019 | Cut 0.25 pt to 1.75–2.00% | $10,241 | +0.2% | −5.0% | −16.1% | −21.6% | −15.2% | −10.4% |
| Jul 31, 2019 | Cut 0.25 pt to 2.00–2.25% | $9,607 | +8.2% | +22.9% | +5.5% | −12.6% | −24.5% | −23.7% |
Why Fed rate cuts matter for bitcoin
Lower US interest rates reduce the return on cash and bonds, the main alternative to holding bitcoin, and often weaken the dollar. But cuts usually come because the economy or markets are in trouble, and markets price in expected cuts weeks ahead, so the reaction on the day can go either way.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin when the Fed cuts interest rates?
Since 2019, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed rate cut in 4 of 11 cases (36%), with a median move of −12.6% and an average of +2.5%. Over all 3-month periods since 2019, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +3.7%. The next day it was higher in 5 of 11 cases (median −0.2%).
Does bitcoin always go up after a Fed rate cut?
No. Three months later it was lower in 7 of 11 cases; the worst was −27.7% after December 10, 2025 and the best +86.0% after March 15, 2020. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did bitcoin do after the most recent case?
After cut 0.25 pt to 3.50–3.75% on December 10, 2025, bitcoin moved −0.2% by the next day, −5.6% after a month and −27.7% after three months.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee's next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 pm New York time. See the economic calendar for the other US releases that move bitcoin.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from bitcoin's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 2019, as a baseline.