What happens to bitcoin when the Fed raises interest rates?
Since 2015, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed rate hike in 8 of 20 cases (40%), with a median move of −7.5% and an average of −1.0%. Over all 3-month periods since 2015, it rose 59% of the time, with a median of +7.7%. The next day it was higher in 10 of 21 cases (median −0.1%).
Bitcoin After Fed Rate Hikes: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 2015, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Median | −0.1% | 0.0% | −1.8% | −7.5% | +1.8% | +33.5% |
| Average | +0.1% | −0.9% | −0.8% | −1.0% | +9.2% | +82.9% |
| Higher in | 48% (10/21) | 52% (11/21) | 48% (10/21) | 40% (8/20) | 50% (10/20) | 75% (15/20) |
| Best | +12.3% Jul 27, 2022 | +14.5% Sep 16, 2026 | +47.9% Dec 14, 2016 | +61.1% Jun 14, 2017 | +105.8% Jun 14, 2017 | +565.6% Mar 15, 2017 |
| Worst | −9.3% Jun 14, 2017 | −19.7% May 4, 2022 | −21.8% Mar 21, 2018 | −45.6% May 4, 2022 | −53.1% Dec 13, 2017 | −63.4% Dec 13, 2017 |
| All days: median | +0.3% | +0.5% | +2.0% | +7.7% | +11.7% | +40.4% |
| All days: higher in | 54% | 54% | 56% | 59% | 60% | 72% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often bitcoin was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Fed rate hikes | 21 | −0.1% 48% up | −1.8% 48% up | −7.5% 40% up | +33.5% 75% up |
| Hikes of 0.25 pt | 15 | +0.6% 53% up | +0.2% 53% up | −5.3% 43% up | +29.5% 71% up |
| Hikes of 0.50 pt or more | 6 | −1.8% 33% up | −6.3% 33% up | −10.3% 33% up | +38.4% 83% up |
Every Case
Fed rate hikes since 2015, newest first. Bitcoin price is the close before the event (US dollars).
| Date | Decision | Bitcoin before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.75–4.00% | $75,613 | +1.0% | +14.5% | +10.1% | — | — | — |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.25–5.50% | $29,227 | −0.1% | 0.0% | −1.8% | −9.8% | +29.5% | +125.7% |
| May 3, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.00–5.25% | $28,681 | +0.6% | −3.4% | −8.2% | +6.4% | −10.2% | +62.6% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.75–5.00% | $28,176 | +0.6% | −3.7% | +7.0% | −6.5% | +4.2% | +34.4% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.50–4.75% | $23,139 | +1.4% | −1.6% | +4.5% | +21.8% | +13.9% | +16.1% |
| Dec 14, 2022 | Raised 0.50 pt to 4.25–4.50% | $17,781 | −2.3% | −7.5% | −5.2% | +36.7% | +62.1% | +48.6% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 3.75–4.00% | $20,485 | −1.3% | +0.6% | −18.9% | −17.7% | +6.0% | +48.4% |
| Sep 21, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 3.00–3.25% | $18,891 | +2.8% | +1.8% | +1.4% | −12.1% | +22.4% | +44.1% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 2.25–2.50% | $21,240 | +12.3% | +9.8% | +9.9% | −8.5% | −19.2% | +32.7% |
| Jun 15, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 1.50–1.75% | $22,207 | −8.2% | −7.2% | −7.5% | +5.1% | −13.8% | +8.9% |
| May 4, 2022 | Raised 0.50 pt to 0.75–1.00% | $37,750 | −3.1% | −19.7% | −21.7% | −45.6% | −48.9% | −52.5% |
| Mar 16, 2022 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.25–0.50% | $39,339 | +4.1% | +4.4% | +9.8% | −27.0% | −40.9% | −57.8% |
| Dec 19, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.25–2.50% | $3,696 | +11.9% | +10.3% | +9.2% | +8.2% | +47.9% | +163.9% |
| Sep 26, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.00–2.25% | $6,446 | +3.6% | +2.2% | +1.5% | −34.0% | −45.9% | +21.4% |
| Jun 13, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.75–2.00% | $6,582 | +1.4% | +2.3% | +0.2% | −4.2% | −0.6% | −39.2% |
| Mar 21, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.50–1.75% | $8,913 | −2.1% | −7.9% | −21.8% | −15.2% | −8.2% | −52.2% |
| Dec 13, 2017 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.25–1.50% | $17,415 | −4.9% | +9.8% | −12.7% | −45.5% | −53.1% | −63.4% |
| Jun 14, 2017 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.00–1.25% | $2,717 | −9.3% | −4.7% | −4.2% | +61.1% | +105.8% | +293.5% |
| Mar 15, 2017 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.75–1.00% | $1,240 | −4.2% | −15.0% | −9.3% | +48.3% | +83.3% | +565.6% |
| Dec 14, 2016 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.50–0.75% | $780.56 | −0.3% | +1.6% | +47.9% | +29.1% | +55.1% | +431.9% |
| Dec 16, 2015 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.25–0.50% | $465.32 | −2.0% | −5.7% | −7.8% | −10.5% | −5.1% | +24.7% |
Why Fed rate hikes matter for bitcoin
Higher rates make cash and bonds more attractive than bitcoin, which pays no interest, and tend to support the dollar. Hikes are usually well telegraphed, though, and come when the economy is strong and inflation is rising, which can support bitcoin at the same time.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin when the Fed raises interest rates?
Since 2015, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a Fed rate hike in 8 of 20 cases (40%), with a median move of −7.5% and an average of −1.0%. Over all 3-month periods since 2015, it rose 59% of the time, with a median of +7.7%. The next day it was higher in 10 of 21 cases (median −0.1%).
Does bitcoin always go up after a Fed rate hike?
No. Three months later it was lower in 12 of 20 cases; the worst was −45.6% after May 4, 2022 and the best +61.1% after June 14, 2017. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did bitcoin do after the most recent case?
After raised 0.25 pt to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026, bitcoin moved +1.0% by the next day, +10.1% after a month. Longer periods will appear here once they have passed.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee's next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 pm New York time. See the economic calendar for the other US releases that move bitcoin.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from bitcoin's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 2015, as a baseline.