Bitcoin Seasonality: Every Month Since 2014
Since 2014, bitcoin has risen in 56% of months (81 of 144), with an average monthly change of +5.7%. Its strongest month on average has been October (+16.6%, up in 75% of years) and its weakest January (−1.2%). After a higher month, the next month rose 59% of the time; after a lower month, 54%.
Average change by calendar month, 2014–2026
hover for the median and how often it rose| Month | Rose | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6 of 1250% | −1.2% | −3.5% |
| February | 9 of 1275% | +10.2% | +11.9% |
| March | 6 of 1250% | +0.5% | −0.2% |
| April | 8 of 1267% | +10.2% | +9.7% |
| May | 6 of 1250% | +8.1% | +3.4% |
| June | 6 of 1250% | 0.0% | −0.5% |
| July | 9 of 1275% | +8.9% | +8.1% |
| August | 4 of 1233% | +1.9% | −7.2% |
| September | 6 of 1250% | −1.1% | −0.2% |
| October −4.2% so far | 9 of 1275% | +16.6% | +12.9% |
| November | 7 of 1258% | +7.5% | +7.6% |
| December | 5 of 1242% | +7.1% | −3.2% |
What Happens the Month After Bitcoin Rises or Falls?
All months since 2014: how often the next month rose after a higher or a lower month, against 56% for all months.
After a higher month
InconclusiveAfter bitcoin ends a month higher, the next month has risen 59% of the time since 2014 (47 of 80), against 56% for all months, with an average change of +8.3% and a median of +5.9%: no meaningful pattern.
After a lower month
InconclusiveAfter bitcoin ends a month lower, the next month has risen 54% of the time since 2014 (34 of 63), against 56% for all months, with an average change of +2.7% and a median of +2.6%: no meaningful pattern.
After the biggest months
the largest fifth of rises and of falls| After a month | Cases | Next month rose | Average next month | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 30.5% or more | 17 | 65% | +11.9% | Inconclusive |
| Down 17.6% or more | 13 | 54% | +4.8% | Inconclusive |
"Momentum" or "rebound" only when the share differs from all months by at least 5 percentage points, with at least 20 cases, and by more than chance would explain (95% confidence); otherwise "inconclusive". Each month's page has the same figures for that month alone.
Bitcoin Seasonality FAQ
What is the best month for bitcoin?
By average change since 2014, October (+16.6%). The month that rose most often is February (75% of years). The weakest on average is January (−1.2%). Seasonal averages are small next to the swings in any single year.
Does bitcoin keep rising after a strong month?
After bitcoin ends a month higher, the next month has risen 59% of the time since 2014 (47 of 80), against 56% for all months, with an average change of +8.3% and a median of +5.9%: no meaningful pattern.
Does bitcoin rebound after a weak month?
After bitcoin ends a month lower, the next month has risen 54% of the time since 2014 (34 of 63), against 56% for all months, with an average change of +2.7% and a median of +2.6%: no meaningful pattern.
History, not advice: past monthly patterns do not predict any single month. Data to 26 October 2026.
Cite this page
For essays, articles and research. Prices on this page update daily, so the citations include today's date as the date you accessed it.
@misc{corgano2026bitcoinseasonalityeverymonth, author = {{Corgano}}, title = {Bitcoin seasonality: every month since 2014}, howpublished = {\url{https://bitcoinprice.corgano.com/bitcoin-seasonality}}, year = {2026}, note = {Corgano Bitcoin Price, accessed 2026-10-27}}