What happens to bitcoin after US elections?
Since 2014, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a US election in 3 of 6 cases (50%), with a median move of +8.2% and an average of +26.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 2014, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.1%. The next day it was higher in 5 of 6 cases (median +3.3%).
Bitcoin After US Elections: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 2014, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Median | +3.3% | +5.4% | +9.6% | +8.2% | +21.2% | +60.7% |
| Average | +0.2% | +3.8% | +5.9% | +26.3% | +62.2% | +87.5% |
| Higher in | 83% (5/6) | 50% (3/6) | 67% (4/6) | 50% (3/6) | 67% (4/6) | 83% (5/6) |
| Best | +11.5% Nov 5, 2024 | +18.7% Nov 5, 2024 | +41.0% Nov 3, 2020 | +150.9% Nov 3, 2020 | +304.6% Nov 3, 2020 | +229.8% Nov 8, 2016 |
| Worst | −22.9% Nov 8, 2022 | −20.6% Nov 8, 2022 | −40.5% Nov 6, 2018 | −37.2% Nov 6, 2018 | −39.1% Nov 6, 2018 | −12.2% Nov 4, 2014 |
| All days: median | +0.3% | +0.5% | +1.9% | +7.1% | +11.3% | +42.5% |
| All days: higher in | 54% | 54% | 56% | 58% | 61% | 73% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often bitcoin was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All US elections | 6 | +3.3% 83% up | +9.6% 67% up | +8.2% 50% up | +60.7% 83% up |
| Presidential elections | 3 | +4.3% 100% up | +35.6% 100% up | +42.9% 100% up | +141.3% 100% up |
| Midterm elections | 3 | +1.7% 67% up | −20.2% 33% up | −15.3% 0% up | +44.9% 67% up |
| Presidential: White House changed party | 3 | +4.3% 100% up | +35.6% 100% up | +42.9% 100% up | +141.3% 100% up |
| Presidential: same party kept it | 0 | — | — | — | — |
| Presidential: Republican winner | 2 | +7.2% 100% up | +20.1% 100% up | +36.0% 100% up | +151.7% 100% up |
| Presidential: Democratic winner | 1 | +4.3% 100% up | +41.0% 100% up | +150.9% 100% up | +141.3% 100% up |
| Midterms: House changed hands | 2 | −10.6% 50% up | −30.3% 0% up | −26.3% 0% up | +46.3% 100% up |
| Midterms: House did not change hands | 1 | +3.6% 100% up | +14.6% 100% up | −12.6% 0% up | −12.2% 0% up |
Every Case
US elections since 2014, newest first. Bitcoin price is the close before the event (US dollars).
| Date | Event | Bitcoin before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | Presidential election won by Donald Trump (Republican); Republicans kept the House and won the Senate Array | $67,812 | +11.5% | +18.7% | +35.6% | +42.9% | +22.2% | +73.7% |
| Nov 8, 2022 | Midterms under President Joe Biden (Democrat); Republicans won the House and Democrats kept the Senate Array | $20,603 | −22.9% | −20.6% | −20.2% | −15.3% | +20.1% | +44.9% |
| Nov 3, 2020 | Presidential election won by Joe Biden (Democrat); Democrats kept the House and won the Senate Array | $13,550 | +4.3% | +14.2% | +41.0% | +150.9% | +304.6% | +141.3% |
| Nov 6, 2018 | Midterms under President Donald Trump (Republican); Democrats won the House and Republicans kept the Senate Array | $6,420 | +1.7% | −0.1% | −40.5% | −37.2% | −39.1% | +47.6% |
| Nov 8, 2016 | Presidential election won by Donald Trump (Republican); Republicans kept the House and Senate Array | $703.13 | +2.9% | −0.2% | +4.6% | +29.1% | +76.4% | +229.8% |
| Nov 4, 2014 | Midterms under President Barack Obama (Democrat); Republicans kept the House and won the Senate Array | $327.55 | +3.6% | +10.9% | +14.6% | −12.6% | −10.9% | −12.2% |
Why US elections matter for bitcoin
Elections can change what investors expect for taxes, government spending and debt, trade, regulation (including the rules for crypto) and the Federal Reserve's leadership. But polls and betting markets mean much of the result is usually priced in before the vote, the moves after one night mix election news with everything else, and with one election every two years the sample is small. The figures describe what bitcoin did, not what the result caused.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin after US elections?
Since 2014, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a US election in 3 of 6 cases (50%), with a median move of +8.2% and an average of +26.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 2014, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.1%. The next day it was higher in 5 of 6 cases (median +3.3%).
Does bitcoin always go up after a US election?
No. Three months later it was lower in 3 of 6 cases; the worst was −37.2% after November 6, 2018 and the best +150.9% after November 3, 2020. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did bitcoin do after the most recent case?
After presidential election won by Donald Trump (Republican); Republicans kept the House and won the Senate on November 5, 2024, bitcoin moved +11.5% by the next day, +35.6% after a month and +42.9% after three months.
When is the next US election?
The midterm elections, for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate, will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. US federal elections fall on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in even-numbered years.
Does bitcoin do better after Republican or Democratic wins?
Three months after the presidential elections since 2014, the median move was +36.0% after Republican wins (higher in 2 of 2) and +150.9% after Democratic wins (higher in 1 of 1). With so few cases, each in a different economy, the difference says little: inflation, interest rates and the dollar moved bitcoin far more than which party won.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from bitcoin's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, when election results are usually known. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 2014, as a baseline.