What happens to bitcoin after a halving?
Since 2016, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a halving in 2 of 3 cases (67%), with a median move of +0.6% and an average of −0.1%. Over all 3-month periods since 2016, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.5%. The next day it was higher in 2 of 3 cases (median +0.5%).
Bitcoin After Halvings: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 2016, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median | +0.5% | +1.0% | −1.7% | +0.6% | +5.8% | +49.1% |
| Average | −0.1% | +2.3% | +3.2% | −0.1% | +9.4% | +137.8% |
| Higher in | 67% (2/3) | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) | 100% (3/3) | 100% (3/3) |
| Best | +1.7% Apr 20, 2024 | +7.1% May 11, 2020 | +16.1% May 11, 2020 | +5.6% May 11, 2020 | +22.0% May 11, 2020 | +318.3% May 11, 2020 |
| Worst | −2.6% Jul 9, 2016 | −1.3% Jul 9, 2016 | −4.8% Apr 20, 2024 | −6.5% Jul 9, 2016 | +0.5% Apr 20, 2024 | +46.1% Jul 9, 2016 |
| All days: median | +0.3% | +0.5% | +2.0% | +7.5% | +9.9% | +36.3% |
| All days: higher in | 54% | 54% | 56% | 58% | 58% | 70% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesEvery Case
Halvings since 2016, newest first. Bitcoin price is the close before the event (US dollars).
| Date | Event | Bitcoin before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2024 | Halving: block reward 6.25 → 3.125 BTC | $63,844 | +1.7% | +1.0% | −4.8% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +49.1% |
| May 11, 2020 | Halving: block reward 12.5 → 6.25 BTC | $8,756 | +0.5% | +7.1% | +16.1% | +5.6% | +22.0% | +318.3% |
| Jul 9, 2016 | Halving: block reward 25 → 12.5 BTC | $666.52 | −2.6% | −1.3% | −1.7% | −6.5% | +5.8% | +46.1% |
Why halvings matter for bitcoin
Every 210,000 blocks (about four years) the reward for mining a block is cut in half, which halves the flow of new bitcoin. The dates are known years in advance, so much of the effect may already be priced in; and with only a handful of halvings, each in a very different market, the sample is tiny.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin after a halving?
Since 2016, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a halving in 2 of 3 cases (67%), with a median move of +0.6% and an average of −0.1%. Over all 3-month periods since 2016, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +7.5%. The next day it was higher in 2 of 3 cases (median +0.5%).
Does bitcoin always go up after a halving?
No. Three months later it was lower in 1 of 3 cases; the worst was −6.5% after July 9, 2016 and the best +5.6% after May 11, 2020. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did bitcoin do after the most recent case?
After halving: block reward 6.25 → 3.125 BTC on April 20, 2024, bitcoin moved +1.7% by the next day, −4.8% after a month and +0.6% after three months.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from bitcoin's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 2016, as a baseline.