What happens to bitcoin after it falls 10% in a day?
Since 2015, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a one-day fall of 10% or more in 24 of 44 cases (55%), with a median move of +6.5% and an average of +15.5%. Over all 3-month periods since 2015, it rose 59% of the time, with a median of +7.5%. The next day it was higher in 29 of 44 cases (median +2.2%).
Bitcoin After 10% One-Day Drops: Summary
Move from the close on the day of the big move (the big day itself is not counted). "All days" is every trading day since 2015, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Median | +2.2% | +1.7% | +2.2% | +6.5% | +4.3% | +28.7% |
| Average | +1.9% | +2.3% | +4.6% | +15.5% | +36.6% | +83.2% |
| Higher in | 66% (29/44) | 59% (26/44) | 61% (27/44) | 55% (24/44) | 55% (24/44) | 61% (27/44) |
| Best | +17.8% Jan 14, 2015 | +41.0% Jul 15, 2017 | +62.7% Jul 15, 2017 | +149.5% Sep 14, 2017 | +289.7% Jul 15, 2017 | +802.7% Mar 18, 2017 |
| Worst | −21.1% Jan 13, 2015 | −20.3% Nov 19, 2018 | −32.5% Jan 16, 2018 | −38.1% Jan 11, 2018 | −39.6% Jan 11, 2018 | −51.9% Dec 30, 2017 |
| All days: median | +0.1% | +0.5% | +2.0% | +7.5% | +11.8% | +43.3% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 55% | 56% | 59% | 62% | 73% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close on the big day, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often bitcoin was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10% one-day drops | 44 | +2.2% 66% up | +2.2% 61% up | +6.5% 55% up | +28.7% 61% up |
| Falls of 10–20% | 42 | +2.0% 64% up | +1.5% 60% up | +3.5% 52% up | +19.3% 60% up |
| Falls of 20% or more | 2 | +14.9% 100% up | +32.0% 100% up | +69.9% 100% up | +143.9% 100% up |
| In an uptrend (above the 200-day average) | 28 | +2.4% 71% up | +3.5% 61% up | +4.6% 54% up | +5.1% 50% up |
| In a downtrend (below the 200-day average) | 11 | +2.4% 64% up | +4.7% 64% up | +7.3% 55% up | +40.5% 82% up |
| First big fall in more than a month | 28 | +2.0% 64% up | +3.5% 57% up | +13.4% 61% up | +41.3% 71% up |
| Within a month of another | 16 | +2.8% 69% up | +1.5% 69% up | −4.9% 44% up | −2.8% 44% up |
Every Case
10% one-day drops since 2015, newest first. Bitcoin price is the close on the day of the move (US dollars).
| Date | Event | Bitcoin at that close | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | Fell 14.1% to $62,702 | $62,702 | +12.5% | +9.7% | +7.6% | +14.5% | +1.4% | +31.0% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | Fell 14.3% to $15,881 | $15,881 | +10.7% | +4.6% | +8.1% | +12.9% | +53.5% | +88.4% |
| Nov 8, 2022 | Fell 10.0% to $18,541 | $18,541 | −14.3% | −11.8% | −11.3% | −5.9% | +33.5% | +61.0% |
| Aug 19, 2022 | Fell 10.1% to $20,878 | $20,878 | +1.4% | +2.5% | +2.4% | −8.2% | −19.5% | +40.5% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | Fell 16.0% to $22,487 | $22,487 | −1.2% | −15.4% | −10.0% | +7.3% | −13.1% | +10.4% |
| May 9, 2022 | Fell 11.0% to $30,297 | $30,297 | +2.4% | −0.6% | +4.7% | −34.1% | −26.2% | −30.1% |
| Jan 21, 2022 | Fell 10.4% to $36,457 | $36,457 | −3.9% | +1.1% | +16.3% | +21.6% | −21.5% | −46.7% |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Fell 11.1% to $46,811 | $46,811 | −1.5% | −1.6% | −12.3% | +43.1% | −8.7% | −35.0% |
| Jun 21, 2021 | Fell 11.3% to $31,677 | $31,677 | +2.6% | +1.6% | +4.7% | +56.4% | +99.0% | +36.4% |
| May 19, 2021 | Fell 13.8% to $37,002 | $37,002 | +10.2% | +4.6% | +0.9% | −13.2% | +17.8% | −0.4% |
| May 12, 2021 | Fell 13.3% to $49,151 | $49,151 | +1.2% | −11.4% | −23.6% | −33.2% | −2.0% | −15.1% |
| Jan 21, 2021 | Fell 13.3% to $30,826 | $30,826 | +7.1% | +5.7% | +55.4% | +67.7% | +24.7% | +42.1% |
| Sep 3, 2020 | Fell 10.2% to $10,245 | $10,245 | +2.6% | −1.1% | +5.0% | +52.1% | +284.3% | +385.3% |
| Mar 12, 2020 | Fell 37.2% to $4,971 Crash-size move | $4,971 | +11.9% | +5.1% | +36.7% | +95.8% | +83.7% | +258.4% |
| Sep 24, 2019 | Fell 11.4% to $8,621 | $8,621 | −1.5% | −6.0% | −4.8% | −16.3% | +8.6% | +10.5% |
| Jul 16, 2019 | Fell 13.0% to $9,478 | $9,478 | +2.3% | +11.8% | +21.1% | +8.1% | −13.4% | −28.9% |
| Jun 27, 2019 | Fell 14.1% to $11,183 | $11,183 | +11.0% | −3.4% | −4.6% | −15.0% | −17.7% | −18.8% |
| Nov 24, 2018 | Fell 10.7% to $3,881 | $3,881 | +3.3% | +10.3% | −16.6% | −7.2% | +5.8% | +178.9% |
| Nov 19, 2018 | Fell 13.4% to $4,871 | $4,871 | −8.6% | −20.3% | −28.1% | −26.6% | −18.6% | +95.4% |
| Mar 14, 2018 | Fell 10.1% to $8,270 | $8,270 | +0.4% | +4.4% | −17.1% | +1.2% | −10.9% | −44.3% |
| Feb 5, 2018 | Fell 16.0% to $6,955 | $6,955 | +11.5% | +24.0% | +49.0% | −2.7% | −0.7% | −5.2% |
| Feb 1, 2018 | Fell 10.3% to $9,171 | $9,171 | −3.7% | −15.4% | +9.1% | −25.7% | −16.3% | −31.8% |
| Jan 30, 2018 | Fell 10.5% to $10,106 | $10,106 | +1.1% | −18.1% | +12.8% | −26.2% | −24.5% | −34.3% |
| Jan 21, 2018 | Fell 10.1% to $11,600 | $11,600 | −5.8% | −3.7% | −29.9% | −26.8% | −36.5% | −42.9% |
| Jan 16, 2018 | Fell 16.9% to $11,491 | $11,491 | −2.6% | +1.0% | −32.5% | −22.4% | −30.0% | −43.9% |
| Jan 11, 2018 | Fell 10.5% to $13,406 | $13,406 | +4.3% | −14.3% | −31.6% | −38.1% | −39.6% | −51.4% |
| Dec 30, 2017 | Fell 11.6% to $12,952 | $12,952 | +9.3% | +20.4% | −0.4% | −11.3% | −23.9% | −51.9% |
| Dec 22, 2017 | Fell 12.5% to $13,832 | $13,832 | +6.3% | +14.5% | +1.1% | −25.5% | −35.0% | −49.1% |
| Sep 14, 2017 | Fell 18.7% to $3,155 | $3,155 | +15.3% | +24.4% | +37.2% | +149.5% | +263.7% | +140.5% |
| Jul 15, 2017 | Fell 10.5% to $1,999 | $1,999 | −3.5% | +41.0% | +62.7% | +81.4% | +289.7% | +333.7% |
| Jun 12, 2017 | Fell 10.1% to $2,660 | $2,660 | +2.2% | −0.1% | −3.6% | +62.6% | +115.3% | +322.1% |
| Mar 18, 2017 | Fell 11.5% to $973.82 | $973.82 | +6.5% | +6.7% | +20.8% | +114.1% | +188.6% | +802.7% |
| Jan 11, 2017 | Fell 14.3% to $777.76 | $777.76 | +3.5% | +6.9% | +27.2% | +60.7% | +136.5% | +402.2% |
| Jan 6, 2017 | Fell 11.0% to $902.20 | $902.20 | +0.7% | −13.8% | +1.9% | +23.8% | +91.1% | +303.2% |
| Jan 5, 2017 | Fell 12.2% to $1,013 | $1,013 | −11.0% | −10.4% | −9.5% | +17.3% | +82.4% | +211.3% |
| Jun 22, 2016 | Fell 10.6% to $596.12 | $596.12 | +4.7% | +9.9% | +9.8% | −2.7% | +13.8% | +105.1% |
| Jan 15, 2016 | Fell 15.3% to $364.33 | $364.33 | +6.4% | +15.3% | +6.1% | +12.4% | +21.5% | +65.5% |
| Nov 10, 2015 | Fell 11.4% to $336.82 | $336.82 | −7.6% | −4.9% | +7.6% | +29.4% | +23.8% | +99.8% |
| Aug 18, 2015 | Fell 18.2% to $211.08 | $211.08 | +7.4% | +8.1% | +15.4% | +27.7% | +106.8% | +120.8% |
| Mar 18, 2015 | Fell 10.2% to $256.30 | $256.30 | +1.8% | +4.1% | −4.4% | −8.7% | +8.2% | +28.1% |
| Jan 28, 2015 | Fell 11.2% to $233.92 | $233.92 | −0.2% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +5.7% | −3.4% | +3.9% |
| Jan 14, 2015 | Fell 21.1% to $178.10 Twice the threshold | $178.10 | +17.8% | +20.6% | +27.4% | +43.9% | +31.4% | +29.3% |
| Jan 13, 2015 | Fell 15.7% to $225.86 | $225.86 | −21.1% | −6.9% | +0.6% | +26.4% | +2.7% | +2.1% |
| Jan 3, 2015 | Fell 10.8% to $281.08 | $281.08 | −6.0% | +0.8% | −11.8% | −1.7% | −14.0% | −16.3% |
Why 10% one-day drops matter for bitcoin
Sharp one-day falls in bitcoin usually follow a surprise — a strong jobs report or inflation figure, a jump in the dollar or real yields, a hawkish Fed, forced selling when other markets crash, exchange failures or liquidations — or come after a fast run-up. Whether bitcoin then recovers has depended on whether the cause was a one-off shock or the start of a change in trend.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to bitcoin after it falls 10% in a day?
Since 2015, bitcoin was higher 3 months after a one-day fall of 10% or more in 24 of 44 cases (55%), with a median move of +6.5% and an average of +15.5%. Over all 3-month periods since 2015, it rose 59% of the time, with a median of +7.5%. The next day it was higher in 29 of 44 cases (median +2.2%).
Does bitcoin always go up after a 10% one-day drop?
No. Three months later it was lower in 20 of 44 cases; the worst was −38.1% after January 11, 2018 and the best +149.5% after September 14, 2017. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did bitcoin do after the most recent case?
After bitcoin fell 14.1% to $62,702 on February 5, 2026, bitcoin moved +12.5% by the next day, +7.6% after a month and +14.5% after three months.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from bitcoin's close on the day of the big move to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days later (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months), so the big day itself is not counted. A big day is a close-to-close move of 10% or more (UTC days). Big days often come in clusters, so many cases share the same weeks; the breakdown separates the first big day in a month from the ones that followed.