What's Driving the Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin is $76,025, +18.3% in three months. Four charts of what moves it, each with what it shows now:
- Rates: The Fed's target range is 3.75–4.00% (effective rate 3.88%). Futures price three-month SOFR at 4.16% for Dec 2026 and 4.48% for Dec 2027, against 3.97% today: markets expect rates about 0.51 percentage points higher by Dec 2027, roughly 2 quarter-point hikes. The 2-year yield is 4.61% (+36 bp in three months).
- Dollar: The dollar index is 101.58 (+1.9% in three months, while bitcoin rose 18.3%). Over the last 90 trading days the daily correlation is −0.27 (weak: bitcoin has tended to rise when the dollar falls).
- ETF flows: US spot bitcoin ETFs have taken in a net $56.6 bn since they launched in January 2024 (to 4 Nov). Over the last 20 trading days: outflows of $0.8 bn. Steady inflows mean new buyers through stock-market accounts; outflows often come with falling prices.
- Tech stocks: The Nasdaq 100 is −6.3% in three months, bitcoin +18.3%. Daily correlation over 90 trading days: +0.49 (moderate; +0.47 over a year): bitcoin has been trading like a technology stock.
Interest rates: the Fed and what markets expect
The Fed's target range is 3.75–4.00% (effective rate 3.88%). Futures price three-month SOFR at 4.16% for Dec 2026 and 4.48% for Dec 2027, against 3.97% today: markets expect rates about 0.51 percentage points higher by Dec 2027, roughly 2 quarter-point hikes. The 2-year yield is 4.61% (+36 bp in three months).
Bitcoin vs the US dollar
The dollar index is 101.58 (+1.9% in three months, while bitcoin rose 18.3%). Over the last 90 trading days the daily correlation is −0.27 (weak: bitcoin has tended to rise when the dollar falls).
Bitcoin vs US spot bitcoin ETF flows
US spot bitcoin ETFs have taken in a net $56.6 bn since they launched in January 2024 (to 4 Nov). Over the last 20 trading days: outflows of $0.8 bn. Steady inflows mean new buyers through stock-market accounts; outflows often come with falling prices.
Bitcoin vs the Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 is −6.3% in three months, bitcoin +18.3%. Daily correlation over 90 trading days: +0.49 (moderate; +0.47 over a year): bitcoin has been trading like a technology stock.
How to read these charts
Two lines, two axes. The bitcoin price is on the right axis; the driver is on the left. Where a driver usually moves the opposite way to bitcoin (the dollar), it is drawn upside down, so the lines move together when the usual pattern holds.
When the lines part, something else is in charge. Gold's break from real yields after 2022, when central banks bought record amounts, is the best-known example.
The sentences above each chart use correlations of daily changes over the last 90 trading days: −1 means they always moved in opposite directions, +1 always together, near 0 no link. A link that held for months can fade quickly.
Day to day
For today's move and the headlines behind it, see why bitcoin is up or down today. For the chart patterns, support and resistance, see bitcoin technical analysis; for the dates that move rates, the economic calendar.
Get the daily market email: bitcoin, gold and silver after the US close, with the day's move and why.
These charts describe how prices and their drivers moved together. They are not a forecast or investment advice.
Get the market email every evening
Bitcoin is $76,025 now. Gold, silver and bitcoin after the US close: the price, the day's move and why, in one short email. No account, no spam.
What Drives Bitcoin: FAQ
What drives the bitcoin price?
Day to day, mostly the appetite for risk: bitcoin tends to rise with technology stocks and fall in sell-offs. Money flowing into or out of the US spot ETFs, interest-rate expectations and the dollar matter too, and the four-year halving cycle has shaped its long swings.
Why is the dollar drawn upside down?
Because bitcoin usually moves the opposite way to the dollar. Drawn upside down, the dollar line rises when the dollar weakens, so when the two lines move together the usual pattern is holding; when they part, something else is driving bitcoin. Untick "Upside down" to see it the normal way.
What do SOFR futures show?
Three-month SOFR futures trade on the CME; their price is 100 minus the average SOFR interest rate expected over the three months after the contract month. A December contract at 95.85 means markets expect about 4.15% at the end of that year. Comparing it with today's rate shows whether markets expect the Fed to raise or cut. The 2-year Treasury yield gives a similar, longer reading.
Is this a forecast?
No. The charts show how bitcoin and each driver moved together in the past and what the latest figures are. Relationships change (gold broke away from real yields after 2022), so none of this predicts the next move. Not investment advice.
How often is it updated?
Prices and the dollar daily, yields after each US business day, the fed funds and SOFR futures readings daily, the CFTC report every Friday (positions as of Tuesday), ETF flows after each US trading day. The sentences above each chart are recomputed from the same data.
Cite this page
For essays, articles and research. Prices on this page update daily, so the citations include today's date as the date you accessed it.
@misc{corgano2026whatsdrivingthebitcoin, author = {{Corgano}}, title = {What's driving the bitcoin price}, howpublished = {\url{https://bitcoinprice.corgano.com/bitcoin-price-drivers}}, year = {2026}, note = {Corgano Bitcoin Price, accessed 2026-11-06}}Data
Fed funds target, effective fed funds rate, SOFR and 2-year Treasury yield: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). SOFR futures: CME Group three-month SOFR futures settlement prices via Yahoo Finance, recorded daily (implied rate = 100 − price). US Dollar Index (DXY, ICE) and Nasdaq 100: Yahoo Finance daily closes. ETF flows: Farside Investors. Bitcoin: daily closes (UTC); the price above is live. Weekly values before the last 400 days.